Does Thailand have a chance of joining the CPTPP?
Why did the people come out to protest?
The Ministry of Commerce must withdraw its proposal to the Cabinet!
CPTPP (Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement of Trans-Pacific Partnership)
There are 11 member countries: Japan, Canada, Mexico, Peru, Chile, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Malaysia, Brunei and Vietnam.
(Formerly known as TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) “Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement”, with the United States as a member, totaling 12 countries, but in 2017 the United States withdrew, so the name was changed to CPTPP)
CPTPP covers trade, services and investment, government procurement, competition policy, intellectual property protection, labor standards, and environmental law.
Positive view (+)
The Department of International Trade Negotiations, Ministry of Commerce, looks at the following issues:
- Market size and GDP
– CPTPP members have a population of over 500 million people (6.7 percent of the world’s population).
– It has a GDP of over $11 trillion (13% of world GDP).
– In 2019, Thailand had total trade with CPTPP members worth 140 billion USD (31.5 percent of Thailand’s total trade).
– If Thailand joins the CPTPP, it is expected that GDP will expand by 0.12 percent (worth 13,323 million baht) and investment will expand by 5.14 percent (worth 148,240 million baht).
- Export expansion
– It is expected that Thai exports will expand, both from opening additional markets with CPTPP members with whom Thailand already has 9 FTAs (e.g. fresh/frozen chicken, processed seafood, rice, wheat, car tires, cars, petroleum, fresh/dried fruits).
– and exports expanded with two countries with which Thailand has never had an FTA, namely Canada and Mexico (such as processed seafood, rice, rubber products, automobiles and components, and electronic equipment)
(***On this point, it is said that “exports will expand”. Some people disagree that the markets that Thailand will gain from joining CPTPP are only Mexico and Canada. While the other 9 member countries, Thailand already has FTAs. Therefore, it is not worth the negative impacts.)
- Help maintain Thailand’s status in the regional production chain.
– Joining the CPTPP will help maintain Thailand’s position in the regional production chain, leading to continuous economic development in the long term.
Negative view (-)
The public sector opposes joining the CPTPP on the following important issues:
- Agricultural costs will increase due to monopoly on seeds.
– To join CPTPP, Thailand must join the Convention for the Protection of New Varieties of Plants or UPOV (International Union for the Protection of New Varieties of Plants), where foreigners can use Thai native plant varieties for research to create new plant varieties and can then patent them. However, farmers will not be able to save protected seeds to plant in the next season, which means they will have to buy seeds every time, which will increase the cost.
(***However, on this issue, the Director-General of the Department of International Trade Negotiations said that he had discussed with the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives and confirmed that the CPTPP and UPOV agreements also give farmers the right to save seeds for further planting, if they are planted for their own use.
- Affecting the production system of drugs, medical supplies and medical equipment
For example,
– Cancel the privileges granted to the Government Pharmaceutical Organization in the procurement of government drugs and require state enterprises to purchase or sell goods and services without discrimination and in accordance with market mechanisms.
– Access to medicines: Thailand will not be able to use the Compulsory License (CL) measure, which is a flexible and legal measure that helps solve the problem of access to intellectual property and access to medicines. Therefore, Thailand will not be able to use the right to import anti-HIV drugs and cancer drugs.
– Cancel subsidies to state enterprises that may affect state enterprises, businesses and industries from foreign countries, without exception for state enterprises such as water, electricity and medicine. Therefore, it will cause people to have higher expenses to access public utilities and medicine.
***Based on the benefits and disadvantages that Thailand will receive from joining the CPTPP , the government should allow all relevant sectors to express their opinions and find joint conclusions.
